Free trade simulation models and forecasts
The Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) uses economic models to assess the impact of preferential trade agreements on Swiss agriculture.
Quantitative analyses
The FOAG uses quantitative economic models to assess the impact of preferential trade agreements on Swiss agriculture and to forecast supply balances and prices. The aim is to provide independent and transparent scientific support for policy decisions.
The FOAG currently has access to three models covering international trade agreements for the agricultural sector:
- Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) ;
- Simulation Agricultural Trade Utility for Research and Negotiations (SATURN) ;
- AGricultural LINKage - COmmodity SImulation MOdel (Aglink-Cosimo) .
The FOAG develops and coordinates research projects with other research institutes (e.g. Agroscope and the University of Bonn in Germany).
The CAPRI model
CAPRI is a model for the agricultural sector. It was designed for ex ante (prior) impact assessment of agricultural, environmental and trade policy. It has two components:
- A supply module covering the EU and specific neighbouring European countries
- A market module also covering regions in the rest of the world.
The CAPRI model has been in use at the FOAG since 2012. To date, it has mainly been used to assess the impact of new Swiss market access conditions.
The SATURN model
SATURN is a sector-specific model that covers around 150 Swiss agricultural products. It was designed to evaluate international trade negotiations between Switzerland and third countries. The aim is to analyse demand behaviour based on customs tariffs, which determine access to the Swiss market. Swiss representatives then use the results as the basis for negotiating trade agreements. The SATURN model was developed by the FOAG in collaboration with the University of Bonn.
The Aglink-Cosimo model
The Aglink-Cosimo model is used to create medium-term supply balance and price forecasts.
Aglink-Cosimo provides access to an international database. The model is useful for monitoring specific policy measures outside Switzerland and also offers a range of international indicators.
Aglink-Cosimo is the model used to create market forecasts for publication in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. The Aglink model is coordinated by the OECD, and Switzerland is involved in this.
Each year, medium-term supply balance and price forecasts for key Swiss agricultural products are provided. These forecasts are used to develop reference scenarios for quantitative policy analysis and are applied in other FOAG models (e.g. CAPRI).
The FOAG is responsible for coordinating updates of Switzerland’s basic data in Aglink-Cosimo. The model provides access to several indicators and policy parameters with global coverage.
Frequently asked questions
Further information
The FOAG provides a reduced English-language version of its website that does not include all further information such as documents, legislation or links. These can be found on the pages in the three official languages (German, French and Italian).